Well, no one is certain about the correct way to deal with North Korea. However, we can narrow down the options; there are a couple of policies the U.S. could choose that are clearly wrong.

One is to begin bilateral talks any time in the near future - that would be seen by North Korea and the world as a cave-in. Whatever the wisdom of bilateral talks in general, softening our policy now is no longer an option. Senators Hagel and Lugar, among others, were calling for bilateral talks a couple of weeks ago. The missile launch should change their tone.

There will, no doubt, be some who call for a military response to the launches, but that, too, would be an enormous mistake. No one thinks that North Korea can "annihilate" us if we hit them, but if a limited U.S. strike left them with the ability to retaliate, their response would threaten millions of Japanese, South Koreans, and American troops in South Korea. Simply put, until our intelligence is rock-solid, China and South Korea support military action, and U.S. ground troops are withdrawn from South Korea, a military response will remain impossible.

I am inclined to think that because North Korea has shown that no agreement it makes is worth the paper it is written on, we should no longer talk with the DPRK at all - not even in the context of the six-party talks. One idea would be to initiate emergency five-party talks to "deal with the North Korean problem" - this would further embarass and isolate the North Korean regime. Another idea is to work directly in a bilateral fashion with each of North Korea's neighbors, strengthening ties, making concessions, and pressuring each of them to move quickly to a hard-line stance against the North Korean regime. The problem will continue so long as there is food and energy flowing into the DPRK because of South Korean and Chinese assistance.

If the North Koreans were smart they would
say that their missles were really aimed
at Israel - they just went off course.

The world would not care at all then.

Except to warn the Israeli's not to
overact to 'irritants' that might
fall on them.

Ryan: "until ... U.S. ground troops are withdrawn from South Korea...."
Hmmmm. Withdraw US troops from So Korea.
Sounds good to me! Wake-up call to NK, SK, China and Japan. (Truth to tell, seems like Japan got it some time ago).

Let's put everything in perspective. For the past couple of days, out here in the country, my neighbors have exploded more ordinance than the NO's have with their weak attempt at bluster. Notice, they don't put any warhead on their stuff. Know why? Because it might blow up in their faces.

Without China's aid North Korea would quickly go down the tubes. The only thing I can think of that could get China to force them into line would be if Japan announced that unless N. Korea gave up all its nuclear weapons and agreed to meaningful inspections thereafter that it, Japan, would withdraw from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. This would scare the Hell out of China, and I think the Koreans would be quickly brought into line. I don't expect for this to happen, but its the only thing I can think of that would bring a relatively easy solution to the problem.

On the other hand, even with aid from the outside, North Korea appears to be falling apart. Perhaps its best just to wait and stall, which seems to be what we are doing now, and just wait for the implosion to happen. Unless N.K. gets massive infusions of aid soon, I don't think we'll have to wait all that long for its collapse.

"Panic" isn't the word I'd use.

I'm angry. Because it's clear we're not going to do anything to stop on that cockroach Kim's face, that he can do whatever he wants and get away with it.

I'd make a comment were it not for all the lines you're putting through the copy.

Don't worry. NK is only a problem because their leader is a China-supported lunatic. The PEOPLE are not fanatical (like Arabs, for example).

No North Koreans will fly airplanes into buildings or behead you on videotape.

Read this fascinating article on the changing nature of war, in a historical context.

Looking at the map, I can't help but wonder what Russia would do if a missile aimed at the U.S. accidently blew up a big chunk of that country.

OCBILL said :"Looking at the map, I can't help but wonder what Russia would do if a missile aimed at the U.S. accidently blew up a big chunk of that country."

Easy. They'd blame the U.S.

Many North Koreans are quite fanatical. All you have to do is read about conditions there from numerous eyewitnesses to know that. It's a fanatical cult of personality and while Kim's obviously going to have lots of people who hate him he, like all dictators, will have people who will gladly die for him.

And I doubt very very much that Kim would fly planes into skyscrapers. I have no doubt at all that he would launch a nuclear weapon if it suited him. Because he's bats*** insane.

Panic? Yes, for Kim's immediate neighbors, not for us. They were aiming at Japan, but landed next to Russia.

No good options to react? Bullcrap! Show N.Korea how pathetic and weak they are by having a 1/2 dozen assorted U.S. Subs pop up and declare "BLOCKADE". No shipping. Take a train to China (After you give the Chinese their trains back!) Run the blockade and have the screws shot off of your stern. Then float at the whim of the current, suckers. We should have done this years ago. Kim Il Ding-Dong and all his "strong-arm" cohorts would be overthrown by now. Then. thereaten Iran in kind. I think you'll get a different reaction from Iran than you're getting now. I'd trade 6-months of $5/gallon gas to blockade the Strait of Hormuz just to watch Iran's economy crumble. "F" 'Em.

I think we're going to have some very hurt families tonight. Feel sorry for the scientists. After today's debacle, their families might actually be murdered for this loss of face to the United States.

e should have done this years ago. Kim Il Ding-Dong and all his "strong-arm" cohorts would be overthrown by now. Then. thereaten Iran in kind. I think you'll get a different reaction from Iran than you're getting now. I'd trade 6-months of $5/gallon gas to blockade the Strait of Hormuz just to watch Iran's economy crumble. "F" 'Em.

You're prognostication seems as accurate as that of the original Nostradamus, i.e. not at all.

Evevrything we've seen indicates that KIm is firmly in control of his own country and having survived numerous famines is unlikely to be overthrown by a blockade.

Looking at the map, I can't help but wonder what Russia would do if a missile aimed at the U.S. accidently blew up a big chunk of that country.

They would turn Pyongyang into a sea of glass. Ditto for China. And Kim knows it. Thats why China and Russia seem annoyed by North Korea but arent panicking.

There are indeed fanatical elements of the Nork regime, including what passes for their SpecOps organs.

They've conducted extranational assassinations before, and up until the last few years tunneling across the DMZ to insert spies was a big part of Nork policy. Now they seem to do it more often by submarine, or by way of the expat population living in Japan.

Panic? Not for us, but the Japanese and South Koreans are in a delicate spot. One bad day (perhaps after dining on lobster and caviar that's a bit past its sell-by date) Mr. Kim might direct his army to fire one round per tube from the artillery dug in opposite Seoul.

By conservative count, that's something like 10,000 rounds of everything from WW2 era Japanese/American/Soviet howitzers thru FROG and SCUD launchers and everything in between.

The international political value of North Korea is its existence as a buffer between impoverished southern China and exhuberantly capitalist South Korea, plus its past utility as a deniable intermediary for China's shadier commerce - the latter, not so much anymore.

Nork profitable exports seem limited to quality counterfit money, drugs, and curricula for prominent western academic institutions. Their missiles might bring cachet to some third-worlder's parade, but they really aren't the thing for delivering anything that absolutely, positively, has to get anywhere anytime soon.

weren't you, like Andrew Sullivan, for that dope Kerry? WTF?

weren't you, like Andrew Sullivan, for that dope Kerry? WTF?

weren't you, like Andrew Sullivan, for that dope Kerry? WTF?

Evevrything we've seen indicates that KIm is firmly in control of his own country and having survived numerous famines is unlikely to be overthrown by a blockade.

Mm.

What about a decapitation strike? Who's next in line to run the place? Are they smarter/less nutty than the current guy?

How likely is the NK military to go offensive without command from the top?

Authoritarian regiemes seem to have a taste for centralized command and control and discouraging independent action on the part of officers.

China shares 1416 Km long border with North Korea.So is'nt it obvious that China will be concerned about the welfare of millions of poor people and the chaotic collapse of the government in North Korea?

each test increases pressure regardless of success insomuch as US must ask "wihtout an agreement how long do we allow them to go on perfecting the technology?" - a failed test cannot just be laughed off as some of you seem to want to do. Thus it is Kim has Bush by balls - until the day China demands it he doesn't have to compromise and has nothing to lose. Bush does, either by compromising his supposed integrity by backtracking on the 'axis of evil' crap or by compromising security by significantly raising the stakes. Failure to understand or at least respect this simple dynamic has driven bad to worse. Bush is as bad a statesman as he was a businessman - I'd say the smirking scion peaked sometime during his glory days of cheerleading.

China and South Korea fear the economic fallout of a collapsed North Korea more than the potential other kind of fallout from NORK's dubious missile technology. Until this calculus changes, there's really nothing to be done about North Korea except hope that somebody with the power to overthrow the leader does so. Personally, this might be one case where a US confession of impotence (followed, perhaps, by hints of a more protectionist trade policy towards South Korea and China) might be the only way to move this thing.

In the meantime, we can always mock Kim's Stalinist pretentions and pray for the poor people who have to populate dear leader's people's republic.

Tcobb has the right of it. We need to change the international dynamic here by letting the pot boil in the rest of Asia instead of running around keeping a lid on everything. China has no real dog in this hunt aside from a vague interest in seeing the US tied down dealing with their nutty nephew. Encouraging Japan to pursue a nuclear weapons program while beefing up SK and Taiwans conventional arsenal would surely peak China's interests again. This is a one sided teeter-totter the way we've been playing it- we have to walk on egg shells dealing with Taiwan so as not to lose China's help on NK (little as it is), but when the shoes on the other foot we havent been turning China's screws on Taiwan.

Look, we could sit down in one on one talks with the NKs like the former Clintonians keep moaning for, but why repeat their mistakes? What can we offer NK that will induce KJI to do anything we want him to do? By his arithmatic, the stronger his nuclear/missile program the stronger his bargaining position. He may be right. So why hand him tools to prop up his regime and gain nothing in return as the Clintons did?

At last count we have almost 250,000 Americans, north of the Han River. Most of those are military wives and families. Since the Han river bridges are the first thing the South will blow if the North gets froggy and invades that means those American civilians are already considered hostages.

Until we get them out of South Korea our options are few and ugly.

At last count we have almost 250,000 Americans, north of the Han River. Most of those are military wives and families. Since the Han river bridges are the first thing the South will blow if the North gets froggy and invades that means those American civilians are already considered hostages.

Until we get them out of South Korea our options are few and ugly.

At last count we have almost 250,000 Americans, north of the Han River.

Eh?

The US forces deployed in SK is roughly 30-40k troops. Where on earth is the 250k number coming from?

This is just the latest in a series of outrageous stunts by a self-important fool that will end up getting a lot of innocent people hurt. Like his dad before him, he defies the world and thinks the United States is going to bargain with his "show of strength." All one has to do is look down the road and see the future; we can either ignore this idiot (and let his antics get more dangerous), choose to talk with him and give into his little demands (might as well deal with terrorists while were at it) or squash this little cockroach before he does any real damage. Time to go on a bug hunt!

How do you relate to the shrimp swimming among whales?

The shrimp is nervious, and with reason. So makes of big show of agressiveness.

The whales can choose to eat the pesky little shrimp. Not an appetizing meal, but it would restore quiet to the neighborhood.

Or they can fake fear of the "powerful" shrimp and let him go on swimming, may be a bit more relaxed.