Saturday, March 4, 2006

previous entry | main | next entry | TrackBack (0)


Your Oscar predictions for 2006

Continuing an annual tradition here at danieldrezner.com since 2003, let's get right to our Independent Spirit Academy Award predictions for this Sunday night's event.

In contrast to last year, I'm pleased to report that my lovely wife and I were able to see almost all of the major films nominated this year. Naturally, it seems that this was unnecessary, since a lot of the races appear to be mortal locks of one kind or another. There isn't even a lot of controversy this year. [What about the Boston Globe op-ed by Michael Kalin asserting that Oscar host Jon Stewart is bad for the body politic?--ed. Oh, you mean the op-ed that presented an absurd thesis and provided exactly zero empirical evidence to support the argument? No, the only controversy is whether a) Kalin used compromising photos of someone on the Globe's editorial staff to crack the op-ed page (this would explain a lot of bizarre editorial decisions at major newspapers); and b) whether any of my readers can dig up an even dumber op-ed published this calendar year.]

As always, the hardworking staff here at danieldrezner.com provides two lists -- who will win and who should win.

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: George Clooney, Syrianna
Should win: Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man

Clooney was a triple threat this year, he's been a bankable movie star for five years, he put on 40 lbs. to play the role, and he gets under the skin of Bill O'Reilly. Is there any doubt?

Giamatti wins it in my book for degree of difficulty. He's in a cliche-ridden movie (Erika and I always have a good laugh when one of us looks at the other and says, "You're the champion of my heart" in our best faux-Jersey accent) playing a stock character of long-suffering but loyal sidekick. He still makes the guy compelling. That's acting.

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Should win: Catherine Keener, Capote and The 40-Year Old Virgin

Weisz has picked up all the pre-Oscar awards, so she seems to be a lock for this one and can I just say I don't get it? I mean, OK, she's perfectly serviceable in the role, and Lord knows, she's easy on the eyes. Unlike Giamatti, however, she never seemed to add anything unique or interesting to the stock role of passionate crusader. Michelle Williams was much more compelling in Brokeback Mountain.

Keener, however, deserves the Oscar for playing two wildly divergent parts. She's all quite and stillness in Capote -- but I'd rather she win for The 40-Year Old Virgin. It's the toughest part in the movie to play (well, next to Steve Carrell), and yet she completely pulls off the "hot grandma" role.

Best Actor:
Will win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote

Drezner's First Law of Oscar: Whenever there's a close race between two actors -- neither of whom has won an Oscar before -- the award will always go to the guy with the longer and better track record. Between Hoffman and Heath Ledger, this means Hoffman [Does this law hold for actresses?--ed. No, that's Drezner's Second Law of Oscar: whenever there's a close race between two actresses -- neither of whom has won an Oscar before -- the hotter actress wins. I'm not saying it's right -- I'm saying that's the way it is.]

In this case, Hoffman's win will be well-deserved. For me, the scene that clinched it was his diatribe at the bar to Harper Lee at the opening of To Kill a Mockingbird. That scene was Capote at his most loathsome, a harbinger of the dissolute, drnk narcissist he would become after In Cold Blood was released. Hoffman is willing to make his character completely unlikeable to service the movie.

In the end, it comes to this: I can see Hoffman playing Ledger's character in Brokeback -- whereas I can't see Ledger playing Capote.

Best Actress
Will win: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Should win: Maria Bello, A History of Violence

On Witherspoon, see what I wrote about George Clooney, and add the fact that she's a comedienne playing a dramatic role. Unless you're Jim Carrey, that's Oscar gold, baby.

I still can't believe Bello did not score a nomination -- and I didn't even like A History of Violence. You could argue that Bello had a supporting role, but given the weak field this year in the best actress category, I think she belongs here.

Best Director
Will win: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Should win: Tie, Lee and Bennett Miller, Capote

Ang Lee directing Brokeback was the perfect marriage of style to material, and he does a fine job. However, for my money MIller does something remarkable in Capote. Visually, the movie grabs your attention in the first half, especially in the contrast between the New York skyline and the flat Kansas landscape. As you begin to identify and understand the characters, however, Miller starts using more close-ups, focusing your attention on the people rather than the place. It's an arresting piece of work.

Best Picture
Will win: Brokeback Mountain
Should win: Tie, Capote and The 40-Year Old Virgin

I liked Brokeback a lot -- though to give Mickey Kaus some ammo, when I told my hetero friends that I was going to see it they almost instinctively recoiled in horror. And I'll confess that my affection for Capote might not be generalizable. However, as someone who gets paid to be a detached observer of real-world events, I found the theme of Capote to be much more interesting.

As for The 40-Year Old Virgin, look, it's just the funniest movie of the year.

Enjoy the show!! I'll be sure to post a post-awards update.

POST-AWARDS UPDATE: A few quick thoughts:

1) Worst. Montages. Ever. (except for the cowboy one -- that was quite funny). Grease is an epic???!!! The Day After Tomorrow is on par with All The President's Men??!! Thank God Jon Stewart said, "And none of those problems ever occurred again. Hooray for us."


2) I'm glad an American-sounding name won Best Actress.

3) Jon Stewart was great, George Clooney does self-deprecating well, and Reese Witherspoon veered awfully close to Sally Field-territory. The entire show had an off-kilter feel to it... in that Stewart gently mocked how out of touch Hollywood might be with the rest of the country, while the rest of the show seemed dedicated to proving that Stewart was understating his case. Most bizarre moment -- the slow-motion dance sequence during Kathleen's York's performance of the Crash theme.

4) I was batting 1.000, and then we get to Best Picture. Jack, I swear...

When Nicholson said Crash won Best Picture, it seemed so absurd to me that I was expecting Nicholson to say, "just kidding!" a second later. I dare my readers to name a worst Best Picture winner in the past 25 years. Crash will always be a testament to the effect that good actors can have on a one-dimensional, badly-plotted, didactic pile of Brechtian crap that passed for the script. What the f$%@? Hmmm..... I wonder if Hollywood still has a homophobia problem. [Or Capote and Brokeback split the pro-gay vote!!--ed. No, it looks like Kaus was right, but picked the wrong substitute winner. See also Tyler Cowen.]

5) They should create an Oscar for Best Hair just so Salma Hayek can win it.

LAST UPDATE: James Wolcott concludes: "The true theme of tonight's broadcast: boobies!" Er... I thought that was the theme every year.

posted by Dan on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM




Comments:

I think I might agree with Mr. Kalin, but I also agree with you that it's poorly supported. I think that the Globe op-ed people wanted someone willing to pee in the Oscar pool, so to speak.

posted by: Klug on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



Grizzly Man should win best documentary.

posted by: izzard on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



and, Paradise Now for best foreign film!

posted by: joe m. on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



I'm starting to wonder if one of there is some basic cultural/personality divide that is somewhat shown by whether or not people loved 40 Year Old Virgin. I've run across lots of people who do - and lots of people who are sincerely utterly confused as to what the fuss is about. I mean it was fine, and Keener was great, but all the raves ... I'm just confused by them.

No mention of Amy Adams and Junebug? That's a fantastic film, and she steals every scene she's in.

posted by: Armand on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



Say Dan, don't you think Selma Hayek looked stunning in her Oscar dress ?

posted by: erg on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



Crash?

This was the only film nominated for Best Picture that my wife and I saw together (we tried to see "GN&GL" yesterday but it sold out while we were in line).

I didn't think it was that good.

posted by: Rodger on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



Worse than Crash? Titanic?

posted by: Pooh on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



I have to stick up for Reese. I thought she was outstanding in Walk the Line and was glad she won. Mario Bella, saw the movie, never even considered she might be nominated for anything, I think you could drop 20 actresses into that role and they'd all acquit themselves as well as she did. I'm not as strongly anti-Crash as you are, but thought it was too one-note, I don't think it will hold up well.

posted by: william wyler on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



I have to stick up for Reese. I thought she was outstanding in Walk the Line and was glad she won. Mario Bella, saw the movie, never even considered she might be nominated for anything, I think you could drop 20 actresses into that role and they'd all acquit themselves as well as she did. I'm not as strongly anti-Crash as you are, but thought it was too one-note, I don't think it will hold up well.

posted by: william wyler on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



Ah, Hayek:
http://www.csun.edu/~dgw61315/dgwhayek.html

posted by: James on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



I had no doubt you would note Salma Hayek, Dan. However gorgeous and voluptuous she is -- and there is no doubt about that -- I think Rachel Weisz has got to be an up and comer in the same area of the girl department store. Especially that link you gave us! Naked wrapped by a boa? Wow. I will be sure NOT to show that picture to my wife. I'm still trying to remove the snake from Rachel's body ....

posted by: Big Canadian on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



American Beauty is the worst Best Picture winner, probably ever, and I am quite confident saying that even though I have not even seen Crash.

posted by: Chris on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



Re: Crash v. American Beauty, I dunno. In some ways they're *very* similar films. I loved both of them when I saw them, but have come to dislike Beauty and have arrived at something like ambivalence towards Crash, as the things that I loved best about them (good performances in Beauty, great ones in Crash, great visuals in Beauty, good ones in Crash) have failed to withstand the "more important and groundbreaking than it actually is" air both movies carry about them.

The reason I'm still ambivalent about Crash, rather than just dismissive, is that while it's supremely heavy-handed, and its heavy-handedness makes it into a distorted picture of American racism (i.e., too focused on one or two aspects of the subject at the expense of the harder-to-dramatize-but-more-everyday subtle undercurrents of racism), there *were* lines in the movie that rang true for me and my experience. And I think Ebert, who's been defending the movie rather voraciously, hit on something recently: it's trying to be like Dickens, and if you go read Dickens, he's incredibly heavy-handed and his characters are one-dimensional mouthpieces which are maneuvered in highly improbable ways to make Dickens' terribly obvious social points...which is why I don't like A Tale of Two Cities. But there is a tradition in which this sort of thing exists (I'm not saying, btw, that Crash is artistically *on par* with Dickens, just noting some similarities of method).

posted by: Quarterican on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



I think the prognosticators screwed up because they (we) all forgot that Crash is about Los Angeles -- and everybody who votes for the Oscars lives in L.A. So it was "important" to them in a way that it isn't to us in the Heartland.

Am I the only one who thinks Joaquin Phoenix was robbed? Hoffman *was* Capote the same way that Phoenix *was* Cash. Shouldn't the singing be the tie breaker, especially when he sings "Folsom" for the producer and *becomes* Johnny Cash?

posted by: Arthur on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



Couldn't agree more about Crash, as it was literally unwatchable--we had to turn it off after less than half an hour. Thank God I didn't waste $10 in the theater on it.

Dan, on your assessment of Heath Ledger ("I can't see Ledger playing Capote"), I would have agreed until I saw him in Brothers Grimm, a so-so movie in which he dispelled all my ideas about his (lack of) acting ability to that point. I think we'll see him at the Oscars again before too long.

posted by: Dave B. on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



Worse than "Crash"? "The English Patient". BORING. "Ordinary People." BORING.

posted by: Matthew on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



LOL! I was waiting for a Salma Hayek mention. You didn't disappoint.

posted by: Patrix on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



WORST Best Picture - Forrest Gump. Sentimental garbage...

I thought Crash was phenomenal. And I liked Brokeback too, but Crash was an ensemble piece with many actors/actresses doing a fine job. It was great to see it win for it's ensemble piece.

I live in a city (not LA, but a big urban place). Crash was dead on in being real, ugly, yes, but real.

On a different note, what was the deal with the slamming of DVDs. How is Hollywood REALLY out of touch -- when they bite the hand that feeds them. I cannot afford to go see all the movies I want to see (and I try to see a bunch of them), and quite frankly, if all the good ones wouldn't be released at the same time I could get a chance to go (still haven't seen King Kong and I love Peter Jackson's work, but the holidays were insane and by the time I got a chance to go, it was gone out of the theatre). So what is the deal Hollywood - your younger audience demands portabilty. I'll pay for it, I won't download it illegally, but to slam it - missing the point completely.

I too thought Jon did the best he could with a really tough crowd. Boring, boring show -terribly directed and horribly rude when they cut off at least three people from speaking at the podium.

What was up with the teleprompter???

posted by: Ftmble on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



"I dare my readers to name a worst Best Picture winner in the past 25 years. "

Oh, come on. This group might not be worse, but you can't seriously argue that they're better:

  • The Last Emperor
  • Gandhi
  • Titanic
  • The English Patient
  • American Beauty
posted by: Cal Lanier on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



Titanic sucked rocks. I rooted for the iceberg.

posted by: Alan K. Henderson on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



I finally saw 'Brokeback Mountain' last night. Leger did an excellent job, I thought. I'll be seeing Capote later this week to compare.

posted by: Don on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



I just read Wolcott's piece and will skip the comments on his off-base political rant except for this one thing: Courage to make these movies. Please! The entire category consisted of movies that, in Wolcott's imagination, he thinks that Right wing zealots would punish Hollywood for making. Gay Sheep Herders, Gay Author, Racist White Power Structure, Anti Civil Liberties Power Structure, and a botched attempt to 'potray the other side' of the depraved murder of Israeli Athletes.

So, if everyone else is doing it does it really take that much courage?

Maybe Wolcott needs to talk to his mother about courage again so that she can give him the "If all your friends jumped off a bridge..." speech.

posted by: Phocion on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



Dan,

I just don't get it. Why all the hate for Crash? I'm sorry, but that was a damn good movie. The acting is certainly the strong point, more than the script, but come on. I just don't get it. Homophobia had nothing to do with it. The better movie won.

posted by: Rafique Tucker on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



OH, and BTW, everyone knows that the worst Best Picture winner is The English Patient. How that dreck got the nomination is a mystery only the Lord knows. American Beauty was overrated as well.

posted by: Rafique Tucker on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



"Crash" won because of the superior acting performances of so many stars and the fact that the Academy's membership is mostly made up of actors - people who naturally favor themselves.

Did the "gay vote" for two contenders get split? Very possibly. Which would explain why Ang Lee won Best Director, not Best Picture for "Brokeback." (Normally, the nod goes to the same picture and director.) But I prefer his Chinese language "The Wedding Banquet." It convinced me how and why to have a wedding - for family and friends, not ceremony.

What's with Dan's admiration for the one-joke "40 Year Old Virgin?" It was so smoked by "Wedding Crashers." I laughed so hard I cried BOTH times I saw it! When was the last time you did that?

As for the worst Best Picture, "Titanic," followed closely by the pretentious "American Beauty," a theme done much better by any of several New Wave auteurs. "English Patient?" It must be viewed with a mind set on identifying with tragic pain, which is why so many reject connecting with it. But to me, it deserves a pass. But to trash "The Last Emperor" and "Gandhi?" The latter the last great biopic to be so honored? Herecy.

posted by: Orson on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



"The true theme of tonight's broadcast: boobies!"

Er - yes. But which kind? The boobies on the stage or the ones in the tightly-cantilevered (un)dresses? Or both?

posted by: Don S on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



Salma was incredible. I met her once at a Safeway of all places buying fruit. She touched a pear and one of the workers there grabbed it when she put it down. I bet he did some "American Pie" action on that poor pear later that night.

posted by: Jeff Burr on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



Not sure about Hoffman's Capote. He had plently of archive material on which to base an impersonation. And the characterisation was remarkably similar to that drag queen he played opposite Robert De Niro's disaffected cop. It seems to be Hoffman's schtick.

Just because you see Hoffman as Ennis Del Mar and Ledger not playing Capote is not relevant. Some people are right for some parts and others are right for others. I am an actor and I couldn't play Anne Boleyn.

posted by: OscarsBlog on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]



Not sure about Hoffman's Capote. He had plently of archive material on which to base an impersonation. And the characterisation was remarkably similar to that drag queen he played opposite Robert De Niro's disaffected cop. It seems to be Hoffman's schtick.

Just because you see Hoffman as Ennis Del Mar and Ledger not playing Capote is not relevant. Some people are right for some parts and others are right for others. I am an actor and I couldn't play Anne Boleyn.

posted by: OscarsBlog on 03.04.06 at 10:09 AM [permalink]






Post a Comment:

Name:


Email Address:


URL:




Comments:


Remember your info?