Tuesday, September 13, 2005

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Is Enron responsible for weak job growth?

Tyler Cowen links to this informative Daniel Gross article in the New York Times about possible explanations for the relatively weak job growth the economy has experienced over the past few years:

Mystified economists have pointed to various possible culprits: outsourcing, competition from China, high health care costs and lower work-force participation, to name a few. But there's one force that so far has managed to avoid blame for the sluggish pace of job growth: Enron.

Until now. In 2000 and 2001, as the bull market imploded, there was a spike in accounting problems - a mix of outright fraud, earnings manipulation and more benign restatements necessitated by changes in business conditions. Clearly, investors were burned by earnings restatements at Enron and WorldCom, and at hundreds of smaller and less infamous companies. "Nobody had actually explored the real consequences of earnings management, as opposed to the financial ones," says Thomas Philippon, assistant professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business.

Gross then summarizes an NBER working paper by Philippon and his colleague Simi Kedia. Their abstract:

We study the consequences of earnings management for the allocation of resources among firms, and we argue that fraudulent accounting has important economic consequences.... We first show that periods of high stock market valuations are systematically followed by large increases in reported frauds. We then show that, during periods of suspicious accounting, insiders sell their stocks, while misreporting firms hire and invest like the firms whose income they are trying to match. When they are caught, they shed labor and capital and improve their true productivity. In the aggregate, our model seems able to account for the recent period of jobless and investment-less growth.

I agree with Tyler: "It is too early to evaluate this research, and let us not get carried away by monocausal theories, but today I felt I learned something."

posted by Dan on 09.13.05 at 11:32 AM




Comments:

I liked the beginning of Gross' penultimate paragraph: "The conclusions are speculative."

Overinvestment, including overhiring, is what one would expect in the midst of an bubble economy, isn't it? And Enron's corner of the economy had more air in the bubble than most others.

posted by: Zathras on 09.13.05 at 11:32 AM [permalink]



> We study the consequences of earnings management
> for the allocation of resources among firms, and
> we argue that fraudulent accounting has important
> economic consequences....

Seems pretty obvious when one considers AT&T. For all their missteps and overpayments on acquisitions, they had by far the best strategy and customer base of any of the business telecomm/datacomm providers out there in the 1995-2000 time frame. But they destroyed themselves trying to match Worldcom's finanical results. We now know that those finanical results could never have been matched, because they were fraudlent. But that won't bring AT&T back to life: it has been taken apart piecmeal and the remains now sold to SBC. Enormous inefficiency from the societal viewpoint.

Cranky

posted by: Cranky Observer on 09.13.05 at 11:32 AM [permalink]






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