Wednesday, August 3, 2005
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Following up on the avian flu
A follow-up post to June's discussion of the threat of an avian flu pandemic. There's some good news and some bad news. The good news is that, according to the Financial Times' Clive Cookson, containing the spread of a pandemic is quite feasible:
The bad news is that the computer simulations were based on "an outbreak in rural Thailand of flu caused by the H5N1 avian strain." I'm not sure how they would cope with where the strain has actually migrated. Douglas M. Birch explains in the Baltimore Sun:
If a pandemic were to spread this year, it is far from clear whether the United States or the rest of the world would be able to cope. Developing.... posted by Dan on 08.03.05 at 01:21 PMComments: Developing indeed! The lack of transparency (to say the least!) from China has gotten many concerned. There is a bizarre and deeply "swine disease" that has claimed almost 40 lives in Sichuan (with a case fatality rate nearing 70%!). Officially, it's blamed on streptococcus suis, a common bacteria. However, most medical experts doubt this (see: http://www.promedmail.org/pls/promed/f?p=2400:1001:16708658183120182205::NO::F2400_P1001_BACK_PAGE,F2400_P1001_PUB_MAIL_ID:1000,29920) This is leading to some wild speculation about what's happening in China: http://www.asiaone.com.sg/st/st_20050728_331151.html A big question is what to do? How to get some more openness from China since samples and testing are desperately needed to understand global risks. Is this even on the radar of our foriegn policy leadership? Or will have to wait for our own hospitals to start filling up to guess what's going on in China? posted by: Narmer on 08.03.05 at 01:21 PM [permalink]OOPS Typo! (sorry!) Developing indeed! The lack of transparency (to say the least!) from China has gotten many concerned. There is a bizarre and deeply troubling "swine disease" that has claimed almost 40 lives in Sichuan (with a case fatality rate nearing 70%!). Officially, it's blamed on streptococcus suis, a common bacteria. However, most medical experts doubt this (see: http://www.promedmail.org/pls/promed/f?p=2400:1001:16708658183120182205::NO::F2400_P1001_BACK_PAGE,F2400_P1001_PUB_MAIL_ID:1000,29920) This is leading to some wild speculation about what's happening in China: http://www.asiaone.com.sg/st/st_20050728_331151.html A big question is what to do? How to get some more openness from China since samples and testing are desperately needed to understand global risks. Is this even on the radar of our foriegn policy leadership? Or will have to wait for our own hospitals to start filling up to guess what's going on in China? posted by: Narmer on 08.03.05 at 01:21 PM [permalink]Post a Comment: |
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