Wednesday, March 9, 2005

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The tricky thing about eliminating terrorism....

In the wake of Hezbollah's demonstration of political strength yesterday in Lebanon, and President Bush's confident speech declaring that, "[the] best antidote to radicalism and terror is the tolerance and hope kindled in free societies," let's take a look at another part of the world where concerted efforts have been made to extinguish terrorism -- Northern Ireland.

Tom Hundley reports in the Chicago Tribune on how the IRA now faces an opponent more powerful than the Protestant paramilitaries -- three Catholic sisters:

The $50 million robbery of Belfast's Northern Bank a week before Christmas, the biggest heist in the annals of British crime, was the kind of audacious Robin Hood caper that enhanced the mystique of the Irish Republican Army.

But the ugly Belfast pub brawl that resulted in the slaying of a 33-year-old Catholic man by members of the IRA has seriously tarnished the organization's image among its grass-roots Catholic supporters, especially after the victim's five sisters defied the IRA's unwritten code of silence and publicly demanded that their brother's killers be brought to justice.

The Jan. 30 murder of Robert McCartney has underscored the increasing criminality of the IRA and dealt a serious blow to the electoral chances of Sinn Fein, the IRA's political wing.

It also has isolated Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams and turned the McCartney sisters into local heroes. Adams has not been invited to the traditional St. Patrick's Day celebration at the White House later this month; instead, President Bush has extended the honor to the McCartney sisters and the victim's fiance, Bridgeen Hagans.

"The support of the White House in our quest for justice will be a big help," said Paula McCartney, a 40-year-old mother of five and part-time university student who has emerged as the family's spokeswoman.

In an extraordinary admission of just how damaging the incident has become for the IRA, its leadership issued a statement Tuesday saying it had met with the McCartney sisters and offered to impose a "punishment shooting" on the four men it says were directly responsible for McCartney's death.

Read the whole thing -- the story suggests just how difficult it might be to eliminate terrorists even when their grass roots support starts to dwindle. As Hundley points out:

Under terms of the Good Friday agreement, the IRA should have disarmed and disbanded several years ago. Instead the gunmen have turned themselves into an increasingly Mafia-like crime organization, specializing in drug dealing, extortion, money laundering and the occasional bank robbery.

Indeed, this is the tricky thing about eliminating terrorists -- they can turn to other activities that lack political content but still destabilize society.

The good news in this case is that the IRA's hamhanded offer of punishment shootings has successfully united the other key domestic and international players in Northern Ireland. Needless to say the punishment shooting offer has drawn the ire and condemnation of both Great Britain and the United States. The McCartney sisters have also rejected the IRA's offer and restated their conviction that “For this family it would only be in court where transparency and accountability prevail that justice will be done."

Over at Crooked Timber, Henry Farrell concludes:

[T]he Bush administration is sending about as clear and unambiguous a signal as one could possibly hope for [in inviting the MCartneys to the White House]. Interestingly, the signals from the North seem to suggest that Sinn Fein and the IRA recognize that they’re in real political trouble - not only because of the frost in their relations with the Irish, British and US governments, but also, more importantly, because of protests from natural constituency in the Catholic working class communities in Northern Ireland (where the murder in question has been highly controversial). For the first time in my memory, there’s a serious internal challenge to the IRA’s ability to control its own community, and to the frequently brutal actions of its hard men. Getting rid of them would be a considerable step forward for democratic politics in the North.

The uneven progress being made in Northern Ireland merely underscores this paragraph from President Bush's speech yesterday:

Encouraging democracy... is a generational commitment. It's also a difficult commitment, demanding patience and resolve -- when the headlines are good and when the headlines aren't so good. Freedom has determined enemies, who show no mercy for the innocent, and no respect for the rules of warfare. Many societies in the region struggle with poverty and illiteracy, many rulers in the region have longstanding habits of control; many people in the region have deeply ingrained habits of fear.

This statement would also seem to hold for more affluent, more literate, and yes, more democratic societies as well.

posted by Dan on 03.09.05 at 12:02 PM




Comments:

But Ireland (and even Northern Ireland) has had democracy for nearly a century. The fact that the IRA still persists (albeit weakened) after so many decades, after so many political actions (e.g. recognizing Sinn Fein) is a reminder of the limits of democracy in fighting terrorism.

posted by: Janak on 03.09.05 at 12:02 PM [permalink]



While DD's attention to matters Irish is commendable, he's slipping up on the outsourcing beat:

http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB111032118130773908,00.html

(page A19 of the Wed paper edition)

posted by: P O'Neill on 03.09.05 at 12:02 PM [permalink]



You seem to be underthe mistaken impression that the majority of the pro-Syrian proterstors were from Lebenon. More, you seem to be thinking that if given the choice the Lebanese would vote to Keep Syria.. and indeed, Hezbolah, there.

Neither is correct.

posted by: bithead on 03.09.05 at 12:02 PM [permalink]



Janak, you could equally argue that events in Northern Ireland show the drawbacks of addressing terrorism via the "roots of terrorism" approach. The political role given Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland, including a policing role and ministries, including education, has not been sufficient to see off the IRA. But neither crude idea - that democracy always withers terror (Spain, anyone?) or that terror has roots in poverty/nonrepresentation, really sum up the province's situation adequately.

posted by: James Hamilton on 03.09.05 at 12:02 PM [permalink]



While strictly speaking it's not terrorism, an obvious parallel can also be drawn to the rebel armies in Central America. Although years have passed since "peace agreeements" were signed in Guatemala and El Salvador, armed bands of former rebels (and former soliders too) continue to roam the countryside and cities in both countries. In Guatemala which I know quite intimately, they essentially traded guerrilla movements for armed banditry and narco-trafficing. In many instances the same guys are holding the guns.

posted by: Kent on 03.09.05 at 12:02 PM [permalink]



James -- I agree to some extent. When such old hates are resurrected, then practically any response short of complete extermination is likely to fail.

On the other hand, the economic argument is probably still somewhat valid. What has led finally to an improvement of the situation in Ireland is the growth of the Celtic tiger, giving young Irishmen in both parts of the island a stronger incentive to learn Java programming than learn how to build bombs.

posted by: janak on 03.09.05 at 12:02 PM [permalink]



Kent -- a similar mechanic also holds in Ireland. I've read that the IRA dabbles in smuggling, bootlegging and the like as well. Isn't that how La Cosa Nostra started too, as a national unity movement ?

posted by: janak on 03.09.05 at 12:02 PM [permalink]



Compare also the Basque ETA. The literature shows a disjuncture between the conditions that might prevent a terrorist movement from starting in the first place and conditions for ending the terrorist threat once there's a band of armed hard men. The terrorist organization takes on a life of its own that survives changes in the political sentiment of the surrounding society.

posted by: Jacob T. Levy on 03.09.05 at 12:02 PM [permalink]



I have never read an example of where democracy
stopped terrorism. I thought terrorism was just
a tool someone used to obtain a goal.

How would democracy block the terrorism tool?

posted by: James on 03.09.05 at 12:02 PM [permalink]



Thanks for posting on this story; I've been beating the trash can lids on the McCartney murder for about two weeks.

posted by: Brainster on 03.09.05 at 12:02 PM [permalink]



All of the studies that I am familiar with place La Cosa Nostra as filling an economic niche or political vacuum. I have never seen it linked to the Risorgiomento.

posted by: catfish on 03.09.05 at 12:02 PM [permalink]



It's great to see this story get some pickup in the US, and words from GWB are welcome, but only one thing will actually convince the IRA to stand down: Irish Americans, their longtime loyal supporters, telling them (however reluctantly) that it's over.

That means convincing them without demonising them. The influence of the demagogues of the Irish American 'establishment' on US policy towards Northern Ireland is shocking, when you consider that otherwise semi-rational people like Pete King (R-NY) or Jim Walsh (R-NY) trust Gerry Adams more than their own president.

posted by: R Delevan on 03.09.05 at 12:02 PM [permalink]



"them" that need convincing being Irish Americans. Sorry.

posted by: R Delevan on 03.09.05 at 12:02 PM [permalink]



For me, it seems like the question is whether the terrorist/criminal organization in question is actually destabilizing (FARC in Colombia, the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka) or just a tumor in the body politic (a la the Mafia in the US or the IRA in Ireland.)

You don't want tumors, of course, but they don't kill you immediately.

The other question is what agencies fund the terrorist organizations. The FBI could eliminate a great deal of the funding for the IRA just by closing some of the bigger Irish pubs in San Francisco, which are unapologetic fundraising machines. Just walk in, sit down, shut up and listen -- you'll be amazed and revolted by what you hear.

posted by: BadLiberal on 03.09.05 at 12:02 PM [permalink]



The problem here is that terrorists learn certain skills -- killing people, collecting money for operations, avoiding the police, scaring folks, drafting radical manifestos -- that do not go away merely because there is a Democracy. If you have learned how to be good at being a murdering thug, and can earn a living at it, why are you going to stop? (If you have rationalized killing for your cause, I am not sure a mere change in governmental system is going to persuade you to stop.)Democracy is not a short-term solution. It is a system that can attack the pathologies that cause people to become terrorists. (Paging Mickey Kaus and Rudy Giuliani for additional solutions.)

Of course, the Bin Laden types tend to eliminate themselves. They may disappear more quickly.

posted by: Appalled Moderate on 03.09.05 at 12:02 PM [permalink]



The problem here is that terrorists learn certain skills -- killing people, collecting money for operations, avoiding the police, scaring folks, drafting radical manifestos -- that do not go away merely because there is a Democracy. If you have learned how to be good at being a murdering thug, and can earn a living at it, why are you going to stop? (If you have rationalized killing for your cause, I am not sure a mere change in governmental system is going to persuade you to stop.)Democracy is not a short-term solution. It is a system that can attack the pathologies that cause people to become terrorists. (Paging Mickey Kaus and Rudy Giuliani for additional solutions.)

Of course, the Bin Laden types tend to eliminate themselves. They may disappear more quickly.

posted by: Appalled Moderate on 03.09.05 at 12:02 PM [permalink]



I started writing a long comment, but threw it out because I don't really know what I'm talking about here. But examples like this make me think that maybe Kerry wasn't too far off when he was talking about reducing terrorism to "nuisance" levels (though it was still stupid politics). Truly eliminating terrorism may turn out to be no more possible than eliminating disease. But representative democracy and good government will minimize terrorism, just like working sanitation minimizes disease.

posted by: george on 03.09.05 at 12:02 PM [permalink]



Why IS there such vocal support in the US for Sinn Fein, given their alliances with America's deadly enemies?

The IRA has been caught training FARC. They were running around in Lebanon like lice under a rock (according to notorious neocon Robert Fisk) when the Marine barracks was blown up and met with Hezbollah under Iranian auspices afterwards.

Libya armed them with the explicit objective of seeking revenge for Reagan's bombing of Tripoli. They continue to cozy up to Castro.

Anyone active in Irish politics finds them as the most fanatical and bitterly anti-American force there is.

Never mind their guiding vision of an "Irish Socialist Republic" - a Cuba without the palm trees.

What the hell are these people thinking? Some may be just as anti-American as Gerry Adams is, but not all, surely?

posted by: Peter Nolan on 03.09.05 at 12:02 PM [permalink]






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