Not that I'm assuming you put a lot of faith in the Fair's model but..... Ray Fair's model is a bit off. It is inherently built to Bush's favor, in fact the only way under the model for Bush to get less than 50% of the vote next year is if real per capita GDP falls by 10% over the next three quarters.

Now if the economy were to retract a total 3% during the first 3 quarters I would find it to be astounding and I can assure you that Bush's re-election would seriously be in doubt. Fair's model would have Bush getting re-elected by almost 55%.

Wow, that's interesting. Fair's model is apparently an empirical fit of some sort -- does this suggest that the empirical really says Bush (or rather the incumbent) has that much of an advantage out of the gate?

I tuned in late, but see (day 1) that Andrew gave you permission to do anything. I personally find the color combinations of Daily Dish difficult. White on black or dark blue is so hard to read, I have to hurry to the link.

"Wow, that's interesting. Fair's model is apparently an empirical fit of some sort -- does this suggest that the empirical really says Bush (or rather the incumbent) has that much of an advantage out of the gate?"

No, it says that Fair's model is not selecting the correct variables (or is taking an incomplete set) in order to create his fit. It also points up the fact that there are so few elections that any empirical model is highly questionable. The important variables shift significantly in even one election cycle, much less in 10 or 12 cycles.

So it's trying to create a curve fit to a moving target on the basis of very limited data, which is something of a fool's errand. In every election, there are likely to be unique factors that no model will adequately capture.

I don’t want to sound like a broken record

Coulda fooled me. (See: endless Plame posts)

Dr. Daniel,

I think the situation of Dean Master nomination is now only a matter of time (early March). So, it may be good to have a Daily Dish sub-section focus on Dean Watch. I think his flip-flops (e.g., Discovering Jesus years after a bikepath fight, Overthrowing Saddam during Clinton years and today, Closed energy meetings in VR).

I think it is sad that even as we move to 2004, the World's most perfectable Democracy (i.e., there are flaws but these are all workable) has yet to focus on becoming the World's most open and participatory democracy.

I yearn for that day, sadly because of liberal-hypocrites this is taking a long time...

Ali Karim Bey

Not to worry, Daniel, the problem with the blog isn't you, I don't think. Blogger.com is completely down at the moment, and has been so apparently since sometime last night, so far as posting goes. I expected something to show up on my personal blog at about 6 pm yesterday and it didn't happen. They appear to be completely trashed at the moment.

Dave
Elkhart Indiana

See as I made a note of Fair to you, I'm willing to place a friendly bet (with any interested party) that Fair's last (sequential) prediction will be within the margin of error.

I'd also note that -- not claiming his model as inerrantly correct -- I simply claimed that he was correct in that case, when you had said none were.

Oh well.

Ali,

The abbreviation for Vermont is VT, not VR.

Norma,

I concur, light text on dark background is bad.

“In every election, there are likely to be unique factors that no model will adequately capture.”

Yup, that’s most certainly the case. I’m not sure what to make of Ray Fair’s election theories based solely on economic factors. Needless to add, I hope that he’s right about President Bush’s reelection chances. My gut instincts tell me that the current incumbent is favored by an eighty percent margin. It would be even higher if the liberal media were not out to damage him. A Democrat candidate always has this single factor in their favor. The “elite” media are always on their side!

The President presumably has little to fear regarding the economy. It’s the terrorist issue that remains the wild card. All bets are off if the Bush administration might be blamed for a major terrorist attack on American soil. And there is always the unlikely possibility of someone finding a recent photo of President Bush enjoying sex with a farm animal.

The Democrats are their own worst enemy. They don’t have any realistic chance of selecting a 1992 Clinton style leader. The left of center has a lock on the nominating process. Joseph Liberman’s chances are less than 5%. Howard Dean is the clear favorite with Richard Gephardt having an outside chance. Karl Rove is probably laughing his rear end off. It appears that he will be collecting some easy paychecks.